Wednesday, 27 July 2011

Using reason to contest overblown concerns (Part 4 of 8)

Reason is the most powerful tool for dismantling falsehoods. If we grow convinced that we stand a good chance of accomplishing our goals, we will become less worried and more adventurous.

Logic is our cardinal ally for contesting overblown concerns. The best way to face fear is to demonstrate its irrationality, namely:

1. INTENSITY VERSUS LIKELIHOOD. The intensity of a potential catastrophe is independent of the likelihood of its occurrence.

Salesmen promote insurance policies by painting vivid pictures of misfortune, but their sales presentations seldom mention the actual statistical probability of such misfortune taking place.

To be continued in the next post.


[Image by Fr Antunes under Creative Commons Attribution License. See the license terms under]