In some areas of the world, the economy is stagnating, inflation is rising and unemployment remains high. As a result, millions of people are seeing their lives disrupted. Those who have recently lost their jobs may have the feeling that finding a new position is going to take extensive efforts and a very long time.
stock markets are showing daily fluctuations over 3%, an enormous range
by historical standards. Some investors have liquidated their holdings
in despair and incurred a substantial loss. The current levels of market
volatility are testing the faith of the most devoted believers in a
better economic future.
The psychological pressures that
accompany these events are considerable. The gloom-and-doom atmosphere
that dominates conversations inevitably influences people's decisions.
Purchases are delayed and changes are feared. When the future looks
dark, hesitation seems safer than action.
all these threats and uncertainties, I remain massively optimistic about
the future of the world economy. I am convinced that growth will soon
resume strongly and take us to higher levels of prosperity. On which
facts do I base my optimistic conviction? Are my positive expectations
justified by statistical trends?
Yes, in fact there are lots of
positive economic data out there if you care to look for them, and not
only in China, India and Singapore. Freight volumes are growing and the
same can be said of the number of new vehicles sold. More car sales
means more steel production and more jobs. For every negative newspaper
headline, you can find plenty of data that predict an upwards trend.
so, my purpose today is not to engage a statistical discussion. Facts
can be measured, but opportunities need to be discovered. Improvements
are what you get when you apply creativity to problems.
predicting the future, structural factors are more reliable than
isolated details. If you know a man's character, you will be able to
foretell his destiny with greater accuracy than if you know everything
he did during the last two days.
Human creativity, or rather, the
increased opportunity to exercise it, provides us a solid ground for
forecasting a bright economic future. Like a man's character, the level
of personal initiative and inventiveness in the world changes only
slowly, but one it gets as good as it is now, chances are that it will
stay this way for many years.
For more information about
rational living and personal development, I refer you to my book
10 Principles of Rational
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