Most of the predictions I read for 2023 are extremely pessimistic. It is not without reason that people have gloom views of the future, but I am of a different opinion. My expectations for 2023 are highly optimistic. Let me explain why.
Widespread pessimism about the news is creating a distortion, a gap between perception and reality. People are expecting extremely negative events in 2023. Almost all commentators are talking about global catastrophes, massive poverty, power shutdowns, and all kind of disasters that would turn the world into a complete mess.
How likely are those disasters to
materialize? I am convinced that they are extremely unlikely. We can
only get a fair appraisal of today's situation by taking a historical
perspective. We cannot assess today's situation without context. The
right way to assess the present is to look at history and see how
similar situations have actually evolved.
We know of similar times in recent and ancient history. It has happened often that people have made equally gloomy predictions. In the face of a deep crisis, many men and women have thought that it was the end of the world.
It is not such a long time ago that the world has experienced large wars, famines, pestilence, wide-reaching supply problems, bankruptcies, and high inflation.
Those events caused a lot of suffering, but did not last long. Even the worst cases, the World Wars, lasted four to six years. They eventually subsided and were followed by periods of prosperity.
If compared with the World Wars and other crises in history, today's situation is much more favorable. Our financial systems are more robust that at any previous time in history. We have inflation in many countries, but with few exceptions, we are a long way from hyperinflation. Even the disruptions in supply chains are not unprecedented. In most cases, they are not preventing people from leading a normal life.
I could go on forever, taking apart every argument in the doom-and-gloom predictions and comparing them to history. In every case, I would be able to show that the current problems, in general terms, are far from catastrophic and that they are unlikely to last for long.
What makes my view of 2023 highly optimistic is that, sooner or later, the gap between perception and reality will close. After a while, people will start to regard the current crisis as just another problem to solve.
When the gap between perception and reality closes, people will overcome the current pessimism. They will redouble their efforts to solve the problems they are facing, and as a result, they will make their own lives and society better.
My conviction is that it will not take long before worthless projects will stop. People will face their mistakes and pull the plug. They will extricate themselves from losing propositions, and allow sanity and prosperity to be restored.
Unfortunately, there are ongoing wars and those are killing large numbers of people, but I think that those wars will exhaust themselves and that some kind of peace will be concluded. I do not think that the current conflicts will continue for long if only because they are massively expensive and disruptive.
My optimism is based on a historical perspective. The world has often gone through similar problems and solutions have been found.
If you keep a cool head during trying periods, you can actually profit from outstanding opportunities. It is precisely during a crisis, during periods when everybody believes that the world is coming to an end, that you can find astounding bargains in many markets.
If you are running a business or looking for a new job, or trying to get a promotion, or preparing to launch a new product, this may be the perfect time, the perfect opportunity.
Competition has become weaker than a couple of years ago because so many people have grown discouraged. In many markets, the obstacles to success have diminished. It pays to remind yourself that there's no reason for you to stay in any particular market or country, if it is blocking your entrepreneurial or career initiatives.
In particular, international brokerage accounts have become inexpensive and can be managed from any place. Many of those services did not exist a couple of years ago. You can invest anywhere in the world for low fees. This is a novelty in history, but relatively few people are taking advantage of this opportunity.
If you assess current events and look for opportunities, you will find them. Despite the reigning pessimism, we are living in a world that offers extraordinary chances of improving one's life.
Do not allow yourself to be discouraged by the widespread pessimism. Instead, adopt a balanced historical perspective, like the one presented in my books. Learn the lessons from history, so that you can make better decisions today and take a decisive step forward.
I wish my readers a very happy 2023 and commend them to put the lesson from history into practice. Take advantage of the opportunities created by the current crisis. Seize the chances that are emerging. They might help you advance more than you have done in the prior decade.
Stay alert because 2023 will be full of asymmetries. The chances may prove extraordinary and similar ones might not arise in a long time. Stay away from gloom-and-doom forecasters and, instead, devote your efforts to looking for great opportunities. Happy New Year.
[Text: http://johnvespasian.blogspot.com]
[Image: Photo taken by John Vespasian, 2020]
For more information about rational living, I refer you to my books
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